Farashin zinari da raguwar ajiyar kuɗi don fitar da M&A - BofA

Babban bankin Amurka ya bayyana a cikin wani sabon rahoto cewa, jimillar darajar hada-hadar hada-hadar kudi a rubu'i na biyu na shekarar ta kai dala biliyan 2.86 a cikin yarjejeniyoyin guda goma sha biyu, inda masu sayan kasar Sin suka samu kadarorin gwal, kana wasu kananan kamfanoni suka hada karfi da karfe don zama masu samar da matsakaicin matsayi. .

Bankin saka hannun jari ya lura cewa ma'amaloli 12 sun wakilci mafi girman jimlar kwata-kwata tun kwata na huɗu na 2012, kuma darajar dala ta kusan ninki biyu da aka gani a cikin yarjejeniyar M&A a cikin kwata na farko na 2020.

Har ila yau, ya nuna cewa daya daga cikin abubuwan da ke faruwa a cikin kwata na biyu shine fifiko ga kadarorin da aka riga aka samar ko kuma kusan samarwa. "Shida daga cikin ma'amaloli goma sha biyu a cikin Q2'20 sun kasance don kadarorin da ake samarwa a halin yanzu," in ji rahoton.

Da yake kwatanta yanayin saka hannun jari na yanzu a matsayin "kasuwar masu siye ga kamfanoni," Bankin Amurka (BofA) ya lura cewa biyar daga cikin ma'amaloli tare da ajiyar da suka faru a cikin kwata na biyu na shekara "an saka farashi a kan ragi na 23% ga gwal da ke kan gaba. Farashin, ƙasa da kewayon tarihin -20% zuwa +10%.

"Bayanan sun nuna cewa H1'20 na ɗaya daga cikin mafi kyawun lokutan zama mai siyan kamfanonin zinariya, ma'adinai da ayyuka," bankin ya kammala.

"Don ma'amalar kamfanin zinare, farashin saye, dangane da farashin zinare da ya mamaye, sun kasance a matsakaici a matakin mafi ƙanƙanta tun 2011 kuma na biyu mafi ƙanƙanta tun 1998."

Bankin ya kuma yi nuni da cewa "ayyukan mega sun dawo kan gaba," in ji Artemis Gold's C $ 190 miliyan tsabar kudi na aikin New Gold's Blackwater a British Columbia, daya daga cikin manyan wuraren ajiyar zinare a cikin Kanada, wanda "ya kara sama da $200. miliyan sabon darajar kasuwa” ga mai siye.

"Wannan na iya mayar da haske kan kamfanonin da ke zaune akan miliyoyin oz. ƙananan aikin megaprojects na zinariya."

Bugu da kari, daga cikin yarjejeniyoyin 12 a cikin kwata na biyu, bakwai suna da tanadi kuma biyar suna da albarkatun kawai.

"'Giwar da ke cikin daki' ita ce haɗin gwiwar dala biliyan 1.71 na SSR Mining tare da Alacer Gold a ranar 11 ga Mayu 2020," in ji shi, wanda ya haifar da +600,000 oz. mai yin zinare.

“Sauran hada-hadar kasuwanci goma sha daya sun kai dala miliyan 27 zuwa dala miliyan 238. Manyan furodusoshi na duniya ba su kasance a cikin M&A circus a cikin Q2'20."

Haka kuma, rabin mu'amalar Q2 ne kawai ke cikin hukunce-hukuncen ma'adinai (Kanada, Ostiraliya da Ghana), wanda ke nuna cewa "kwanciyar hankali ta siyasa [ba ta da mahimmanci a Q2'20."

Matsakaicin yarjejeniyar M&A ba zai yuwu ba a cikin rabin na biyu na shekara, hasashen bankin, tare da hauhawar farashin zinare da buƙatar sake cika tanadi.

"Don H2 2020, buƙatar maye gurbin ajiyar da aka haƙa a cikin 2020 tare da mafi girman farashin zinari zai zama abin da zai haifar da ƙarin M&A," in ji BofA a cikin rahotonta na Yuli 9. "Bayan shekaru na rashin saka hannun jari, muna ganin bayanan martaba a ƙarƙashin matsin lamba da ajiyar kuɗi. Shaidar a bayyane take don yin watsi da ita… A karshen shekara ta 2019 jimillar ajiyar zinari ga masu samar da zinare na duniya ya kai oz miliyan 612, ya ragu da kashi 30% daga kololuwar oz miliyan 875. a karshen shekara ta 2012, yana daidaita da raguwar ma'aunin ajiyar rayuwa."

Yana annabta cewa tare da zinariya cresting $1,750 da oz., sakamakon zai zama "iska free tsabar kudi gudana da kuma fadada kimantawa mahara" da za su yi kama da lokacin rikodin M & A tsakanin 2010 da 2013. Mid-tier kera cewa ba su yi. yana yin ma'amala, yana da dalili, "haɗarin zama 'barranta a baya' ta hanyar takwarorinsu masu girma da sauri."

"Sakamakon da ba a yi niyya ba na tallace-tallacen kaddarorin da manyan masu kera gwal suka yi (bayan haɗewar mega a ƙarshen 2018-farkon 2019) ya haifar da haɓaka' manyan 'yan kasuwa na tsakiyar matakin da ke nuna alamar zinari a cikin oz miliyan 1.0-1.75. . iyaka,” in ji rahoton. "Wadannan manyan masu samar da ruwa suna zuwa hankalin masu saka hannun jarin zinare na duniya (wataƙila a kan kuɗin ƙananan masu samar da zinare [0.5-1.0 miliyan oz.]."

Bankin ya ba da jerin sunayen kamfanoni takwas waɗanda ke samar da tsaka-tsaki / tsaka-tsakin da ya yi imanin suna da ma'adinan "mai ban sha'awa" da ko ayyukan ci gaba: Pretium Resources, Victoria Gold, Torex Gold, Wesdome Gold Mines, New Gold, Lundin Gold, Teranga Gold da Perseus Mining. .

A fannin bincike da ci gaba, BofA ya ce jerin sunayen kamfanoni masu ban sha'awa sun ƙunshi: Albarkatun Hanyar Zinariya, Osisko Mining, Rubicon Minerals (yanzu Battle North Gold), Great Bear Resources, Gold Standard, Orla Mining, Sabina Gold & Silver, Marathon. Gold, Okio Resources, International Tower Hill, Novagold, INV Metals, Premier Gold, MAG Silver, Midas Gold, Algold Resources, Eastmain Resources, West African Resources, Belo Sun Mining, Artemis Gold, da Sirios Resources.

Abu daya da zai iya rage M&A, ba shakka, shine gazawar kamfanoni yayin bala'in da ake fama da shi don gudanar da ziyarar rukunin yanar gizo na yuwuwar saye. Sakamakon haka, "masu saye da suka yi fice a 'tebur' na nazarin kadarorin na iya samun 'gefen' akan masu fafatawa."

@Nick Sun      [email protected]