Qiimaha dahabka iyo kaydka kaydka si loo wado M&A - BofA

Wadarta qiimaha wax kala iibsiga ee isku-darka iyo iibsiyada rubuci labaad ee sanadka ayaa gaadhay $2.86 bilyan laba iyo toban heshiis, iyada oo iibsadayaasha Shiinaha ay heleen hanti dahab ah iyo shirkado yaryar oo ku biiray xoogaggooda si ay u noqdaan soosaarayaal heer-dhexe ah, Baanka Mareykanka Securities ayaa ku sheegay warbixin cusub. .

Bangiga maalgashiga ayaa xusay in 12-ka macaamil ganacsi ay ka dhigan yihiin wadarta guud ee rubuci-biloodlaha ah ee ugu sarreeya tan iyo rubuci afaraad ee 2012, iyo qiimaha doollarku wuxuu ku dhowaa labanlaab in lagu arkay heshiisyada M&A rubuci hore ee 2020.

Waxa kale oo ay tilmaantay in mid ka mid ah isbeddellada rubuci labaad uu ahaa doorbidida hantidii hore ee wax-soo-saarka ama ku dhawaad ​​wax-soo-saarka. "Lix ka mid ah laba iyo tobankii macaamil ee Q2'20 waxay ahaayeen hantida hadda wax soo saarka," ayaa lagu sheegay warbixinta.

Isagoo ku sifeynaya jawiga maalgashiga ee hadda jira inuu yahay "suuqa iibsadaha ee shirkadaha," Bank of America (BofA) ayaa xusay in shan ka mid ah macaamilada kaydka ee dhacay rubuci labaad ee sanadka "waxaa lagu qiimeeyay 23% qiimo dhimis ah dahabka jira. qiimaha, oo ka hooseeya kala duwanaanshaha taariikheed ee -20% ilaa +10%."

"Xogtu waxay tilmaamaysaa in H1'20 ay ahayd mid ka mid ah xilliyadii ugu fiicnaa ee la iibsado shirkadaha dahabka, macdanta iyo mashaariicda," bangiga ayaa soo gabagabeeyey.

"Lacagta ganacsiga ee shirkadda dahabka, qiimaha iibsiga, marka loo eego qiimaha dahabka ee jira, waxay ahaayeen celcelis ahaan heerka ugu hooseeya tan iyo 2011 iyo kan labaad ee ugu hooseeya tan iyo 1998."

Bangigu waxa kale oo uu tilmaamay in "mashruucyada waaweyni ay dib u soo noqdeen," isagoo soo xigtay Artemis Gold's C $ 190 milyan oo lacag caddaan ah oo uu ku helay mashruuca New Gold's Blackwater ee British Columbia, mid ka mid ah kaydka dahabka ee ugu weyn ee Kanada, kaas oo "ku daray in ka badan $ 200 milyan oo qiimo cusub ah oo suuqa ah” iibsadaha.

"Tani waxay dib u soo celin kartaa iftiinka shirkadaha ku fadhiya malaayiin oz. megaprojects dahab ah oo hooseeya."

Intaa waxaa dheer, 12-kii heshiis ee rubuci labaad, todoba waxay lahaayeen kayd, shanna waxay lahaayeen kheyraad-kaliya.

"Maroodi qolka" wuxuu ahaa SSR Mining ee saaxiibtinimada $ 1.71 ee dhammaan wadaagga la wadaago Alacer Gold May 11 2020," ayay tiri, kaas oo abuuray +600,000 oz. soo saaraha dahabka.

"Kow iyo tobanka wax kala iibsi ee soo hadhay waxay u dhexeeyaan $27 milyan ilaa $238 milyan. Soosaarayaasha sare ee caalamiga ah ayaa ka maqnaa M&A circus Q2'20."

Waxaa intaa dheer, kala badh kaliya ee wax kala iibsiga Q2 waxay ku jireen xukummada saaxiibtinimada leh ee macdanta (Canada, Australia iyo Ghana), taasoo muujinaysa in "xasilooni siyaasadeed [ay] ka muhiimsanayd Q2'20."

Socodka heshiiska M&A uma badna inuu hoos u dhaco qeybta labaad ee sanadka, saadaasha bangigu, oo leh qiimayaal dahab ah oo sarreeya iyo baahida loo qabo dib u buuxinta kaydka.

"H2 2020, baahida loo qabo in lagu beddelo kaydka macdanta laga qodo 2020 oo lagu daray qiimaha dahabka sarreeya ayaa kicin doona M&A dheeraad ah," BofA ayaa ka faallootay warbixinteeda Luulyo 9. "Ka dib sanado badan oo maalgashi, waxaan aragnaa muuqaalada wax soo saarka ee cadaadiska iyo kaydka hoos u dhaca. Caddaynta aad bay u caddahay in la iska indhatiro…Dhammaadka sanadka 2019 wadarta kaydka dahabka ah ee soosaarayaasha dahabiga ah waxay gaadhay 612 milyan oz., hoos 30% marka loo eego heerka ugu sarreeya ee 875 milyan oz. dhammaadka sanadka 2012, oo la mid ah hoos u dhaca tusmooyinka nolosha kaydka."

Waxa ay saadaalisay in marka dahabku soo baxo $1,750 halkii oz., natiijadu waxay noqon doontaa "dabaysha dabaysha lacag-la'aanta ah ee socodka iyo kordhinta qiimaha qiimeynta" taas oo u ekaan doonta xilliga rikoorka M&A ee u dhexeeya 2010 iyo 2013. Soosaarayaasha heerka dhexe ee aan samaynin heshiisyo, waxay sabab u tahay, "khatarta ah in 'laga tago' asaagooda aadka u koraya."

"Natiijada aan la qorshayn ee iibka hantida aan asaasiga ahayn ee soosaarayaasha dahabiga ah ee sare (ka dib isku darka mega ee dabayaaqadii 2018-horraanta 2019) waxay horseedday qayb 'sare' ah oo soo saaraha dhexe ah oo lagu calaamadeeyay wax soo saarka dahabka ee 1.0-1.75 million oz . baaxadda,” ayaa lagu yiri warbixinta. "Soosaarayaashan dareeraha badan ee waaweyn ayaa u soo socda dareenka maalgashadayaasha dahabiga ah ee caalamiga ah (waxay u badan tahay inay qarashka ku bixinayaan soosaarayaasha dahabiga ah ee heerka dhexe [0.5-1.0 milyan oz.]."

Bangigu waxa uu taxayaa siddeed shirkadood oo ah kuwa dhexdhexaadka ah/dhexe ee soo saarayaasha kuwaas oo uu rumaysan yahay in ay leeyihiin miinooyin "xiiso leh" iyo ama mashaariic horumarineed: Pretium Resources, Victoria Gold, Torex Gold, Wesdome Gold Mines, Dahab Cusub, Lundin Gold, Teranga Gold iyo Perseus Mining .

Dhinaca sahaminta iyo horumarinta, BofA waxay leedahay liiska shirkadaha leh hantida xiisaha leh waxay ka kooban yihiin: Khayraadka Waddada Gold, Osisko Mining, Rubicon Minerals (hadda Battle North Gold), Great Bear Resources, Standard Gold, Orla Mining, Sabina Gold & Silver, Marathon Gold, Okio Resources, International Tower Hill, Novagold, INV Metals, Premier Gold, MAG Silver, Midas Gold, Algold Resources, Eastmain Resources, West African Resources, Belo Sun Mining, Artemis Gold, iyo Sirios Resources.

Hal shay oo hoos u dhigi kara M&A, dabcan, waa awood la'aanta shirkadaha inta lagu jiro masiibada hadda jirta si ay u qabtaan booqashooyinka goobaha wax iibsiga ee suurtagalka ah. Natiijo ahaan, "ku-helayaasha ku fiicnaanaya 'desktop' falanqaynta hantida waxay heli karaan ' gees' ka sarreeya tartamayaashooda."

@Nick Sun      [email protected]