Tus nqi kub thiab kev cia tseg kom tsav M&A - BofA

Tag nrho cov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev sib koom ua ke thiab kev yuav khoom hauv lub quarter thib ob ntawm lub xyoo tau mus txog $ 2.86 nphom hauv kaum ob qhov kev sib cog lus, nrog cov neeg yuav khoom Suav tau txais cov khoom muaj nqis kub thiab cov tuam txhab me koom ua ke los ua cov neeg tsim khoom nruab nrab, Bank of America Securities hais hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom tshiab .

Lub tuam txhab peev nyiaj tau sau tseg tias 12 kev lag luam sawv cev rau qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv peb lub hlis twg txij li lub quarter thib plaub ntawm 2012, thiab tus nqi duas tau ze li ob npaug uas pom hauv M & A deals thaum thawj peb lub hlis twg xyoo 2020.

Nws kuj tau taw qhia tias ib qho ntawm cov qauv hauv lub quarter thib ob yog qhov nyiam rau cov khoom muaj nqis uas twb muaj lawm los yog ze li ntawm kev tsim khoom. "Rau ntawm kaum ob qhov kev lag luam hauv Q2'20 yog rau cov cuab tam tam sim no hauv kev tsim khoom," tsab ntawv ceeb toom hais.

Piav txog kev lag luam kev lag luam tam sim no raws li "tus neeg yuav khoom lag luam rau cov tuam txhab," Bank of America (BofA) tau sau tseg tias tsib qhov kev hloov pauv nrog cov nyiaj khaws cia uas tau tshwm sim hauv peb lub hlis twg thib ob ntawm lub xyoo "tau raug nqi ntawm 23% luv nqi rau cov kub kub. tus nqi, qis dua keeb kwm ntau ntawm -20% txog +10%.

"Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias H1'20 yog ib lub sijhawm zoo tshaj plaws los ua tus neeg yuav khoom ntawm cov tuam txhab kub, mines thiab tej yaam num," lub txhab nyiaj xaus.

"Rau cov tuam txhab kub kev lag luam, cov nqi tau los, piv rau tus nqi kub tam sim no, nyob rau nruab nrab ntawm qib qis tshaj txij li xyoo 2011 thiab qhov thib ob qis tshaj txij li xyoo 1998."

Lub txhab nyiaj kuj tau taw qhia tias "mega tej yaam num tau rov qab rau hauv vogue," hais txog Artemis Gold's C $ 190 lab nyiaj tau los ntawm New Gold's Blackwater project hauv British Columbia, yog ib qhov loj tshaj plaws qhib qhov kub hauv Canada, uas tau "ntxiv ntau dua $ 200. lab tus nqi lag luam tshiab "rau tus neeg yuav khoom.

"Qhov no yuav ua rau pom lub teeb pom kev zoo rau cov tuam txhab zaum ntawm ntau lab oz. qib qis kub megaprojects. "

Tsis tas li ntawd, ntawm 12 qhov kev cog lus nyob rau lub quarter thib ob, xya muaj qhov tshwj xeeb thiab tsib muaj peev txheej nkaus xwb.

"Tus 'tus ntxhw hauv chav' yog SSR Mining tus phooj ywg $ 1.71 nphom kev sib koom ua ke nrog Alacer Kub thaum lub Tsib Hlis 11 2020," nws hais tias, uas tau tsim +600,000 oz. tus tsim khoom kub.

"Lub kaum ib qhov kev lag luam tseem tshuav nyob hauv qhov loj ntawm $ 27 lab txog $ 238 lab. Cov neeg tsim khoom loj thoob ntiaj teb tau tsis tuaj ntawm M&A circus hauv Q2'20. "

Ntxiv mus, tsuas yog ib nrab ntawm Q2 kev lag luam nyob rau hauv kev lag luam mining-phooj ywg (Canada, Australia thiab Ghana), qhia tias "kev ruaj ntseg [tsis muaj] tseem ceeb hauv Q2'20."

M & A deal ntws tsis zoo li yuav qeeb nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, lub tsev txhab nyiaj kwv yees, nrog cov nqi kub siab dua thiab xav tau kom rov ua kom muaj peev txheej ntxiv.

"Rau H2 2020, qhov xav tau los hloov cov peev txheej mined hauv 2020 ntxiv rau tus nqi kub siab dua yuav ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam rau M&A ntxiv," BofA tau hais tawm hauv nws daim ntawv tshaj tawm Lub Xya Hli 9. "Tom qab xyoo dhau los ntawm kev nqis peev qis, peb pom cov ntaub ntawv ntau lawm nyob rau hauv siab thiab khaws cia poob qis. Cov pov thawj pom tseeb dhau los tsis quav ntsej… Thaum lub xyoo xaus 2019 tag nrho cov nyiaj khaws tseg rau cov neeg tsim khoom kub thoob ntiaj teb muaj txog 612 lab oz., nqis 30% los ntawm qhov siab tshaj ntawm 875 lab oz. Thaum xaus ntawm xyoo 2012, sib npaug rau qhov poob qis rau lub neej indexes. "

Nws kwv yees hais tias nrog kub cresting $ 1,750 ib oz., qhov tshwm sim yuav yog "windfall free cash flows and expanding valuation multiples" uas yuav zoo ib yam li lub sij hawm ntawm cov ntaub ntawv M&A ntawm 2010 thiab 2013. Mid-tier producers uas tsis ua. deals, nws yog vim li cas, "kev pheej hmoo raug 'tso tseg' los ntawm lawv cov phooj ywg loj hlob sai."

"Qhov tshwm sim tsis zoo ntawm cov khoom vaj khoom tsev uas tsis yog cov khoom lag luam muag los ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom kub laus (tom qab lub mega mergers nyob rau hauv lig 2018-thaum ntxov 2019) tau ua rau ib tug burgeoning 'senior' mid-tier tsim sector cim los ntawm kub tso zis nyob rau hauv 1.0-1.75 lab oz. . ntau, ”daim ntawv qhia. "Cov neeg tsim cov kua dej loj dua no tau los rau cov neeg ua lag luam kub thoob ntiaj teb (tej zaum yuav raug nqi ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom kub me me nruab nrab [0.5-1.0 lab oz.]."

Lub txhab nyiaj teev yim lub tuam txhab uas yog cov neeg tsim khoom nruab nrab / nruab nrab uas nws ntseeg tias muaj "kev txaus ntshai" mines thiab lossis cov haujlwm tsim kho: Pretium Resources, Victoria Kub, Torex Kub, Wesdome Kub Mines, Kub Kub Tshiab, Lundin Kub, Teranga Kub thiab Perseus Mining .

Ntawm kev tshawb nrhiav thiab kev txhim kho pem hauv ntej, BofA hais tias nws cov npe ntawm cov tuam txhab uas muaj txiaj ntsig zoo muaj xws li: Gold Road Resources, Osisko Mining, Rubicon Minerals (tam sim no Sib ntaus sib tua North Kub), Great Bear Resources, Kub Standard, Orla Mining, Sabina Kub & Nyiaj, Marathon Kub, Okio Resources, International Ntauwd Hill, Novagold, INV Hlau, Premier Kub, MAG Nyiaj, Midas Kub, Algold Resources, Eastmain Resources, West African Resources, Belo Sun Mining, Artemis Kub, thiab Sirios Resources.

Ib yam uas yuav ua rau M&A qeeb, tau kawg, yog qhov tsis muaj peev xwm ntawm cov tuam txhab thaum muaj kev sib kis tam sim no los ua qhov chaw mus ntsib cov peev txheej yuav tau. Yog li ntawd, "acquirers excelling ntawm 'desktop' tsom xam ntawm cov cuab tam yuav nrhiav tau ib tug 'ntug' tshaj lawv cov neeg sib tw.

@Nick Sun      [email protected]