Ọnụ ego ọla edo na mbelata ego iji chụpụ M&A - BofA

Ngụkọta ọnụ ahịa azụmahịa nke mergers na nnweta na nkeji nke abụọ nke afọ ruru ijeri $ 2.86 na nkwekọrịta iri na abụọ, ebe ndị na-azụ ahịa China na-enweta akụ ọla edo na obere ụlọ ọrụ na-esonyere ndị agha ka ha bụrụ ndị nrụpụta etiti, Bank of America Securities kwuru na akụkọ ọhụrụ. .

Ụlọ akụ ntinye ego kwuru na azụmahịa iri na abụọ ahụ nọchiri anya ngụkọta nke nkeji iri na ise kachasị elu kemgbe nkeji nke anọ nke 2012, ọnụ ahịa dollar fọrọ nke nta ka ọ bụrụ okpukpu abụọ nke a hụrụ na azụmahịa M&A n'oge nkeji mbụ nke 2020.

O gosikwara na otu n'ime ihe na-eme na nkeji nke abụọ bụ mmasị maka akụ na-emepụtalarị ma ọ bụ ihe fọrọ nke nta ka ọ bụrụ mmepụta. "Isii n'ime azụmahịa iri na abụọ na Q2'20 bụ maka akụ na-emepụta ugbu a," ka akụkọ ahụ na-ekwu.

N'ịkọwa ọnọdụ itinye ego ugbu a dị ka "ahịa ndị na-azụ ahịa maka ụlọ ọrụ," Bank of America (BofA) kwuru na ise n'ime azụmahịa ndị nwere ihe nchekwa nke weere ọnọdụ na nkeji nke abụọ nke afọ "bụ ọnụ ahịa na mbelata 23% maka ọla edo na-achị achị. Ọnụahịa, n'okpuru akụkọ ihe mere eme nke -20% ruo +10%.

"Data na-egosi na H1'20 bụ otu n'ime oge kacha mma ịbụ onye na-azụrụ ụlọ ọrụ ọla edo, ogbunigwe na ọrụ," ụlọ akụ ahụ kwubiri.

"Maka azụmahịa ụlọ ọrụ ọla edo, ọnụ ahịa nnweta, n'ihe metụtara ọnụahịa ọla edo na-achị, nọ na nkezi na ọkwa kachasị ala kemgbe 2011 yana nke abụọ kachasị ala kemgbe 1998."

Ụlọ akụ ahụ rụtụkwara aka na "ọrụ mega alaghachila n'oge," na-ehota ego nke Artemis Gold's C $ 190 nde nke New Gold's Blackwater project na British Columbia, otu n'ime nnukwu nkwụnye ego ọla edo na-emeghe na Canada, bụ nke "gbakwunyere ihe karịrị $200. nde uru ahịa ọhụrụ” nye onye zụrụ ya.

"Nke a nwere ike iweghachite ìhè azụ na ụlọ ọrụ nọ ọdụ na ọtụtụ nde oz. megaprojects ọla edo dị obere."

Na mgbakwunye, n'ime nkwekọrịta 12 na nkeji nke abụọ, asaa nwere nchekwa na ise nwere naanị ihe onwunwe.

"'Enyí dị n'ime ụlọ' bụ SSR Mining nwere mmekọrịta enyi na enyi $1.71 na Alacer Gold na Mee 11 2020," ka ọ na-ekwu, nke mepụtara +600,000 oz. onye na-emepụta ọla edo.

“Azụmahịa iri na otu fọdụrụnụ sitere na $27 nde ruo nde $238. Ndị na-emepụta ihe n'ụwa niile anọghị na egwuregwu M&A na Q2'20."

Ọzọkwa, ọ bụ naanị ọkara nke azụmahịa Q2 dị na mpaghara enyi na-egwupụta akụ (Canada, Australia na Ghana), na-egosi na "nkwụsi ike ndọrọ ndọrọ ọchịchị [dịchaghị mkpa na Q2'20."

Usoro nkwekọrịta M&A enweghị ike iji nwayọ na ọkara nke abụọ nke afọ, amụma ụlọ akụ, yana ọnụ ahịa ọla edo dị elu yana mkpa iji mejupụta nchekwa.

"Maka H2 2020, mkpa ọ dị iji dochie ihe ndị e gwupụtara n'ala na 2020 gbakwunyere ọnụ ahịa ọla edo dị elu ga-abụ ihe na-akpali akpali iji kwalite M&A ọzọ," BofA kwuru na akụkọ July 9 ya. "Mgbe ọtụtụ afọ nke itinye ego na-abaghị uru, anyị na-ahụ profaịlụ mmepụta n'okpuru nrụgide na nchekwa na-adaba. Ihe akaebe pụtara ìhè nke ukwuu ileghara anya… Na ngwụcha afọ 2019 ngụkọta ọla edo maka ndị na-emepụta ọla edo zuru ụwa ọnụ ruru nde 612 oz., gbadata 30% site na ọnụ ọgụgụ kacha elu nke nde oz 875. n'ọgwụgwụ afọ 2012, na-adaba n'ihe ndekọ ndụ nchekwa na-agbada."

Ọ na-ebu amụma na na gold cresting $1,750 kwa oz., N'ihi ga-abụ "windfall free ego aga na ịgbasa valuation multiples" ga-ele anya a otutu dị ka oge nke ndekọ M & A n'etiti 2010 na 2013. Mid-tier emepụta na-adịghị eme. na-ekwu, ọ na-akpatara ya, “ihe ize ndụ ịbụ ndị ọgbọ ha na-eto eto na-eto ngwa ngwa 'hapụ ha n'azụ.

"Nsonaazụ a na-atụghị anya ya nke ndị na-emepụta ọla edo na-ere ahịa na-abụghị isi (biputere njikọ mega na njedebe 2018-isi mmalite 2019) edugala na ngalaba mmepụta 'Senior' n'etiti ndị na-emepụta ihe na-emepụta ọla edo na 1.0-1.75 nde oz. . nso,” ka akụkọ ahụ na-ekwu. "Ndị na-emepụta mmiri mmiri ka ukwuu na-abịakwute ndị na-etinye ego ọla edo zuru ụwa ọnụ (ikekwe na-efu nke ndị na-emepụta ọla edo dị n'etiti etiti [0.5-1.0 nde oz.]."

Ụlọ akụ ahụ depụtara ụlọ ọrụ asatọ bụ ndị na-emepụta etiti / ndị na-emepụta ihe na-eche na ha nwere "egwu" na-akpali akpali na ma ọ bụ ọrụ mmepe: Pretium Resources, Victoria Gold, Torex Gold, Wesdome Gold Mines, New Gold, Lundin Gold, Teranga Gold na Perseus Mining. .

N'elu nyocha na mmepe mmepe, BofA na-ekwu na ndepụta ụlọ ọrụ ya nwere akụ na-adọrọ mmasị nwere: Gold Road Resources, Osisko Mining, Rubicon Minerals (ugbu a Battle North Gold), Great Bear Resources, Gold Standard, Orla Mining, Sabina Gold & Silver, Marathon. Gold, Okio Resources, International Tower Hill, Novagold, INV Metals, Premier Gold, MAG Silver, Midas Gold, Algold Resources, Eastmain Resources, West African Resources, Belo Sun Mining, Artemis Gold, na Sirios Resources.

Otu ihe nwere ike belata M&A, n'ezie, bụ enweghị ike nke ụlọ ọrụ n'oge ọrịa na-efe efe ugbu a ime nleta saịtị nke nwere ike nweta. N'ihi ya, "ndị na-enweta nke ọma na' desktọpụ 'nyocha nke akụ nwere ike ịhụ 'ọnụ' karịa ndị asọmpi ha."

@Nick Sun      [email protected]