Mtengo wa golide ndi kuchepa kwa malo kuti muyendetse M&A - BofA

Chiwerengero chonse cha kuphatikizika ndi kugulidwa mu gawo lachiwiri la chaka chinafika $ 2.86 biliyoni muzochita khumi ndi ziwiri, pomwe ogula aku China adapeza chuma chagolide ndi makampani ang'onoang'ono akuphatikizana kuti akhale opanga apakati, Bank of America Securities itero mu lipoti latsopano. .

Banki yogulitsa ndalama idazindikira kuti zomwe 12 zachitikazo zikuyimira kuchuluka kwambiri kotala kuyambira kotala lachinayi la 2012, ndipo mtengo wa dollar unali pafupifupi kuwirikiza kawiri zomwe zidawonedwa muzochita za M&A kotala loyamba la 2020.

Inanenanso kuti chimodzi mwazomwe zikuchitika mgawo lachiwiri chinali kukonda chuma chomwe chapangidwa kale kapena pafupifupi kupanga. "Zisanu ndi chimodzi mwazinthu khumi ndi ziwiri zomwe zidachitika mu Q2'20 zinali zazinthu zomwe zidapangidwa," lipotilo likutero.

Pofotokoza momwe ndalama zikuyendera panopa monga "msika wogula makampani," Bank of America (BofA) inanena kuti zochitika zisanu ndi zosungirako zomwe zinachitika mu gawo lachiwiri la chaka "zinali zotsika mtengo pa 23% kuchotsera golide womwe unalipo. mtengo, pansi pa mbiri yakale kuyambira -20% mpaka +10%.

"Deta imasonyeza kuti H1'20 inali imodzi mwa nthawi zabwino kwambiri zogula makampani a golide, migodi ndi ntchito," bankiyo inamaliza.

"Pazochitika zamakampani a golide, mitengo yogula, poyerekeza ndi mtengo wagolide womwe udalipo, inali yotsika kwambiri kuyambira 2011 komanso yachiwiri yotsika kwambiri kuyambira 1998."

Bankiyi inanenanso kuti "mapulojekiti akuluakulu abwereranso m'malo," kutchula ndalama zomwe Artemis Gold adapeza C $ 190 miliyoni za polojekiti ya New Gold's Blackwater ku British Columbia, imodzi mwa malo akuluakulu osungiramo golide ku Canada, omwe "awonjezera $200. miliyoni zamtengo wapatali wamsika” kwa wogula.

"Izi zitha kubweretsanso chidwi pamakampani omwe amakhala pa mamiliyoni oz. megaprojects zagolide zotsika."

Kuphatikiza apo, mwa ma 12 omwe adachita mgawo lachiwiri, asanu ndi awiri anali ndi nkhokwe ndipo asanu anali ndi zothandizira zokha.

"Njovu yomwe ili m'chipindamo" inali mgwirizano wa SSR Mining wokwana $ 1.71 biliyoni wogawana zonse ndi Alacer Gold pa Meyi 11 2020," ikutero, zomwe zidapanga +600,000 oz. wopanga golide.

"Zotsalira khumi ndi chimodzi zotsalazo zidayambira pa $27 miliyoni mpaka $238 miliyoni. Opanga akuluakulu padziko lonse lapansi anali kulibeko pamasewera a M&A mu Q2'20. "

Kuphatikiza apo, theka lokha la zochitika za Q2 zinali m'malo okonda migodi (Canada, Australia ndi Ghana), kuwonetsa kuti "kukhazikika pazandale [kunali] kofunikira mu Q2'20."

Kuyenda kwa mgwirizano wa M&A sikungachedwe pang'onopang'ono mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, kuneneratu kwa banki, ndi mitengo yokwera ya golide komanso kufunikira kobwezeretsanso nkhokwe.

"Kwa H2 2020, kufunikira kosintha malo osungidwa omwe adakumbidwa mu 2020 kuphatikiza mtengo wokwera wa golide kudzakhala kothandizira kupititsa patsogolo M&A," idatero BofA mu lipoti lake la Julayi 9. "Pambuyo pa zaka zambiri zokhala ndi ndalama zochepa, tikuwona mbiri yamakampani akukakamizidwa komanso nkhokwe zikuchepa. Umboniwu ndiwodziwikiratu kuti sitingathe kunyalanyaza…Kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2019 golide wokwanira kwa opanga golide padziko lonse lapansi adakwana 612 miliyoni oz., kutsika ndi 30% kuchokera pachimake cha 875 miliyoni oz. kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2012, zomwe zikufanana ndi kuchepa kwa index ya moyo wa anthu osungidwa.

Ilosera kuti ndi golide cresting $1,750 pa oz., zotsatira adzakhala "windfall free ndalama kuyenda ndi kukulitsa kuchulukitsa kuwerengera" zomwe zidzawoneka mofanana ndi nthawi ya mbiri M&A pakati 2010 ndi 2013. Opanga apakati-tier omwe sachita imalingalira kuti, “kukhoza ‘kusiyidwa’ ndi anzawo omwe akukula mofulumira.”

"Zotsatira zosayembekezereka zakugulitsa zinthu zomwe sizinali zofunika kwambiri kwa opanga golide (kuphatikiza kuphatikiza kwakukulu kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2018-kumayambiriro kwa 2019) kwadzetsa gawo lalikulu la opanga "akuluakulu" apakati omwe ali ndi golide mu 1.0-1.75 miliyoni oz. . osiyanasiyana,” linatero lipotilo. "Opanga zinthu zamadzimadzi zazikuluzikuluzi akubwera kwa ochita malonda a golide padziko lonse lapansi (mwinamwake chifukwa cha opanga golide ang'onoang'ono apakati [0.5-1.0 miliyoni oz.]."

Bankiyi imatchula makampani asanu ndi atatu omwe ndi opanga apakati / apakati omwe amakhulupirira kuti ali ndi migodi "yochititsa chidwi" kapena ntchito zachitukuko: Pretium Resources, Victoria Gold, Torex Gold, Wesdome Gold Mines, New Gold, Lundin Gold, Teranga Gold ndi Perseus Mining. .

Pazofufuza ndi chitukuko, BofA imati mndandanda wamakampani omwe ali ndi zinthu zosangalatsa uli ndi: Gold Road Resources, Osisko Mining, Rubicon Minerals (tsopano Battle North Gold), Great Bear Resources, Gold Standard, Orla Mining, Sabina Gold & Silver, Marathon. Gold, Okio Resources, International Tower Hill, Novagold, INV Metals, Premier Gold, MAG Silver, Midas Gold, Algold Resources, Eastmain Resources, West African Resources, Belo Sun Mining, Artemis Gold, ndi Sirios Resources.

Chinthu chimodzi chomwe chingachedwetse M&A, ndiye kuti, kulephera kwamakampani panthawi ya mliri wapano kukaona malo omwe angagule. Zotsatira zake, "ogula zinthu bwino pa 'desktop' posanthula katundu atha kupeza 'm'mphepete' kuposa omwe akupikisana nawo."

@Nick Sun      [email protected]