ʻO ke kumu kūʻai gula a me ka emi ʻana o ka mālama ʻana e hoʻokele M&A - BofA

ʻO ka huina kālā o ka hui ʻana a me ka loaʻa ʻana i ka hapaha ʻelua o ka makahiki i hōʻea i $ 2.86 biliona i ʻumikūmālua mau kuʻikahi, me nā mea kūʻai aku Kina i loaʻa i nā waiwai gula a me nā ʻoihana liʻiliʻi e hui pū ana e lilo i mau mea hana waena, wahi a ka Bank of America Securities i kahi hōʻike hou. .

Ua hōʻike ka waihona kālā he 12 mau hana i hōʻike ʻia i ka huina hapaha kiʻekiʻe loa mai ka hapaha ʻehā o 2012, a ua aneane pālua ke kumukūʻai kālā i ʻike ʻia ma nā kuʻikahi M&A i ka hapaha mua o 2020.

Ua hōʻike pū ʻia ʻo kekahi o nā ʻano i ka lua o ka hapaha ka makemake o nā waiwai i hana ʻia a kokoke i ka hana. "ʻEono o nā hana he ʻumikumamālua ma Q2'20 no nā waiwai i kēia manawa i hana ʻia," wahi a ka hōʻike.

I ka wehewehe ʻana i ke ʻano o ka hoʻopukapuka kālā i kēia manawa he "mākeke kūʻai no nā ʻoihana," ua ʻike ʻo Bank of America (BofA) he ʻelima o nā hana me nā mālama i mālama ʻia i ka hapaha lua o ka makahiki "ua kūʻai ʻia ma kahi hoʻemi 23% i ke gula lanakila. kumu kūʻai, ma lalo o ka pae mōʻaukala o -20% a i +10%.

"Ke hōʻike nei ka ʻikepili ʻo H1'20 kekahi o nā manawa maikaʻi loa e lilo i mea kūʻai aku i nā hui gula, nā mines a me nā papahana," i hoʻopau ai ka panakō.

"No nā ʻoihana ʻoihana gula, nā kumukūʻai kūʻai, pili i ke kumukūʻai gula lanakila, aia ma ka awelika ma ka pae haʻahaʻa mai 2011 a ʻo ka lua haʻahaʻa loa mai 1998."

Ua kuhikuhi pū ka panakō "ua hoʻi hou nā papahana mega," e ʻōlelo ana i ka loaʻa kālā kālā o Artemis Gold C $ 190 miliona o ka papahana Blackwater New Gold ma British Columbia, kekahi o nā waihona gula ākea nui loa ma Kanada, a "ua hoʻohui ʻia ma luna o $200. miliona o ka waiwai kuai hou” i ka mea kuai.

"E hoʻihoʻi paha kēia i ke kukui i nā ʻoihana e noho ana ma ka miliona miliona oz. megaprojects gula papa haʻahaʻa.

Eia kekahi, ʻo nā kuʻikahi 12 i ka hapaha ʻelua, ʻehiku i mālama ʻia a ʻelima mau kumuwaiwai-wale nō.

"ʻO ka 'elepani i loko o ka lumi' ʻo ia ka SSR Mining's $1.71 biliona hui like ʻole me Alacer Gold ma Mei 11 2020," i ʻōlelo ai, nāna i hana i kahi +600,000 oz. mea hana gula.

"ʻO ke koena he ʻumikūmākahi mau hana i loaʻa i ka nui mai $ 27 miliona a i $ 238 miliona. Ua haʻalele nā ​​mea hana kiʻekiʻe o ka honua mai ka M&A circus ma Q2'20.

Eia kekahi, ʻo ka hapalua wale nō o nā kālepa Q2 i loko o nā ʻāina hoʻokipa maikaʻi (Kanada, Australia a me Ghana), e hōʻike ana "ʻaʻole koʻikoʻi ka paʻa politika ma Q2'20."

ʻAʻole hiki ke lohi ka holo ʻana o ka M&A i ka hapa ʻelua o ka makahiki, nā wanana panakō, me nā kumukūʻai gula kiʻekiʻe a me ka pono e hoʻopiha i nā waihona.

"No ka H2 2020, ʻo ka pono e hoʻololi i nā waihona i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma 2020 a me ke kumukūʻai gula kiʻekiʻe e lilo i mea hoʻoikaika e hoʻokau hou aku i ka M&A," wahi a BofA i kāna hōʻike ʻo Iulai 9. "Ma hope o nā makahiki o ka underinvestment, ʻike mākou i nā profiles hana ma lalo o ke kaomi a me ka emi ʻana o nā waihona. ʻAʻole ʻike ʻia ka hōʻike ʻike… I ka hopena o ka makahiki 2019 ka nui o nā mālama gula no nā mea hana gula honua i 612 miliona oz., ma lalo o 30% mai ka piko o 875 miliona oz. i ka hopena o ka makahiki 2012, e like ana me ka emi ʻana o nā papa kuhikuhi ola mālama.

Ua wānana ʻo ia me ka ulu ʻana o ke gula he $1,750 no kēlā me kēia oz., ʻo ka hopena ka "windfall free cash flows and expanding valuation multiples" e like me ka manawa o ka moʻolelo M&A ma waena o 2010 a me 2013. ʻO nā mea hana waena ʻaʻole e hana ʻO ia ke kumu, "ka pilikia ke 'haʻalele ʻia' e kā lākou mau hoa ulu wikiwiki."

"ʻO kahi hopena i manaʻo ʻole ʻia o ke kūʻai ʻana i nā waiwai waiwai ʻole e nā mea hana gula kahiko (i hoʻouna i nā hui mega i ka hopena o 2018-early 2019) ua alakaʻi i kahi ʻāpana hana 'senior' waena waena i hōʻailona ʻia e ka puka gula ma ka 1.0-1.75 miliona oz. . range," wahi a ka hōʻike. "Ke hele mai nei kēia mau mea hana wai nui aʻe i ka manaʻo o nā mea hoʻopukapuka gula o ke ao holoʻokoʻa (ma muli paha o ka uku o nā mea hana gula liʻiliʻi liʻiliʻi [0.5-1.0 miliona oz.]."

Hoʻopaʻa inoa ka panakō i ʻewalu mau hui i waena o nā mea hana waena / waena i manaʻoʻiʻo ʻia he mau mines "ʻoluʻolu" a i ʻole nā ​​​​papahana hoʻomohala: Pretium Resources, Victoria Gold, Torex Gold, Wesdome Gold Mines, New Gold, Lundin Gold, Teranga Gold a me Perseus Mining .

Ma ka ʻimi ʻimi a me ka hoʻomohala mua, ʻōlelo ʻo BofA i kāna papa inoa o nā hui me nā waiwai hoihoi: Gold Road Resources, Osisko Mining, Rubicon Minerals (i kēia manawa ʻo Battle North Gold), Great Bear Resources, Gold Standard, Orla Mining, Sabina Gold & Silver, Marathon Gold, Okio Resources, International Tower Hill, Novagold, INV Metals, Premier Gold, MAG Silver, Midas Gold, Algold Resources, Eastmain Resources, West Africa Resources, Belo Sun Mining, Artemis Gold, a me Sirios Resources.

ʻO kahi mea e lohi ai i ka M&A, ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo ka hiki ʻole o nā ʻoihana i ka wā maʻi maʻi o kēia manawa ke alakaʻi i nā kipa pūnaewele o nā loaʻa. ʻO ka hopena, "hiki i ka poʻe loaʻa ke ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma ka ʻimi ʻikepili 'desktop' o nā waiwai ke loaʻa kahi 'ʻoi' ma luna o kā lākou mea hoʻokūkū."

@Nick Sun      [email protected]